Enterocutaneous Fistula–Associated Sepsis and Mortality: Development and Validation of a Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Prediction Model

BackgroundPredicting enterocutaneous fistula (ECF)–associated sepsis and mortality poses significant challenges in digital health care due to the disease’s complexity and heterogeneous clinical manifestations. Current approaches that rely on single-modal data or traditional scoring systems often fail to capture the intricate immune-inflammatory dynamics and multisystem involvement in patients with ECF.
ObjectiveThis study aims to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)–driven multimodal fusion model integrating clinical, imaging, and transcriptomic data for early prediction of ECF-associated sepsis and 28-day mortality, addressing the limitations of conventional single-dimensional models.
MethodsThis study leveraged publicly available datasets (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III [MIMIC-III], electronic Intensive Care Unit [eICU], and The Cancer Genome Atlas) to construct a multimodal framework. Clinical parameters were processed using Extreme Gradient Boosting, abdominal imaging features were extracted via convolutional neural networks, and transcriptomic profiles were analyzed with variational autoencoders. A Transformer-based fusion network was employed for joint prediction and validated through cross-validation and external testing. Key features were identified using Shapley Additive Explanations and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations interpretability algorithms, while immune regulatory mechanisms were explored via weighted gene co-expression network analysis.
ResultsThe multimodal model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89 for predicting sepsis and 28-day mortality, outperforming unimodal models (clinical-only model, AUC 0.72, and imaging-only model, AUC 0.78). Critical predictors included Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, lactate levels, intra-abdominal free fluid on imaging, and immunoregulatory genes (programmed death-ligand 1 [PD-L1] and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 [IDO1]). Mechanistic analysis revealed distinct immune reprogramming in patients with sepsis, characterized by increased regulatory T cells and M2 macrophages, along with downregulated cluster of differentiation 8+ (CD8+) T cells.
ConclusionsThis multimodal AI model offers an innovative digital solution in medical informatics, enabling precise early risk stratification for ECF-associated sepsis. By integrating multisource data and providing interpretable insights into immune-inflammatory pathways, the model enhances health care quality for patients with ECF and paves the way for personalized intervention strategies.