A Synergistic Causal Pass-Through Effect of Credit Risk Management, Agricultural Sector Financing and Food Security

This study examines the interrelationship between credit risk management, agricultural sector financing, and food security in Nigeria from 2000 to 2023, using quantile regression analysis. Findings reveal a paradox (or inconsistency): while credit risk management mechanisms enhance agricultural financing accessibility, they demonstrate a negative correlation with agricultural GDP contribution, suggesting fundamental inefficiencies in Nigeria’s agricultural credit utilization framework. Analysis across quantiles exposes significant heterogeneity in the effectiveness of guarantee schemes. The study identifies critical moderating effects, particularly the synergistic relationship between credit risk management and agricultural productivity, with environmental factors exerting considerable influence. Findings necessitate comprehensive policy recalibration including restructuring guarantee schemes, implementing robust monitoring frameworks, integrating climate resilience criteria, and ensuring coherence between agricultural credit initiatives and broader monetary policies.