What’s Net‐Zero? Strategic Green Technology Identification in the European Net‐Zero Industry Act

How do policymakers decide which technologies merit strategic support in the European Union’s (EU) emerging green industrial strategy? Despite a growing literature on the EU’s turn towards green market interventionism, the processes through which green technologies are selected for support remain insufficiently understood. Building on the concepts of state capacity and politicization, this article examines the European Commission’s capacity to strategically steer the formulation of green industrial priorities through a case study of the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU’s flagship initiative adopted in June 2024 in response to the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act. Using process tracing based on document analysis and 10 semi-structured interviews with EU policymakers and stakeholders, the article investigates how the list of technologies defining the scope of the Net-Zero Industry Act was constructed and negotiated. It shows that the Commission’s attempt to focus the legislation on a narrow set of mature clean energy technologies eventually failed, as interest mobilization and political engagement from the Council and the Parliament led to an expansion of the list. The article thus argues that under conditions of highly politicized policymaking, internal state capacity becomes less decisive for shaping strategic technology identification, as decision-making tends to shift away from analytical and methodological considerations towards coalition-building and compromise. These findings contribute to academic and policy debates on the political economy of state intervention for the green transition by highlighting how political factors shape the EU’s ability to define green technological priorities and shedding light on the role of the Commission in this context.