What informs a one-party state’s foreign policy? The prospects of a neoclassical realism interpretation of Laos’ ASEAN Chairmanships [version 3; peer review: 1 approved, 3 approved with reservations]

How do state actors act in regional organizations? For decades, international relations scholars assessing Southeast Asia have examined the agency of middle powers in the region, exerting influence and shaping the introduction of regional norms. However, less has been assessed in the context of smaller states such as Laos, which has displayed some unique traits in its foreign policy. Among the empirical anomalies is Laos’ display of neutrality, despite growing closer to China’s lucrative economic opportunities in the past decades. As a means to understand why Laos’s chairmanship roles have displayed neutrality, this study bridges the relevance of neoclassical realism’s theoretical framework to make sense of foreign policies that are out of the ordinary. Drawing on primary and secondary data on Laos’ ASEAN chairmanships in 2016 and 2024, this study argues that domestic considerations (the growing negative sentiment towards economic ties with China) and external determinants (power relations with China and ASEAN regionalism) affect Laos’ external outlook.