Prognostic factors and surgical approach selection for descending duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumors

ObjectiveTo explore the prognostic factors for patients with descending duodenum gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), analyze the impact of different surgical approaches on prognosis, and develop a predictive model for surgical approach selection. MethodsThis single-center retrospective cohort study included patients with primary descending duodenum GIST treated in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from January 2010 to January 2015, with follow-up until August 2025. The primary outcomes were incidence of postoperative complications, disease-free survival (DFS) rate, and overall survival (OS) rate. Cox regression and logistic regression were used to identify factors influencing prognosis and surgical approach selection, respectively. A nomogram model for selecting the surgical approach was constructed. ResultsA total of 78 patients with descending duodenum GIST were included, with age of (56.14±11.76) years. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates were 100%, 98.7%, and 85.7%, respectively, and the corresponding DFS rates were 100%, 90.9%, and 82.3%. Intraoperative blood loss, postoperative gastroparesis, mucosal ulceration, maximum tumor diameter, and Ki-67-positive cell ratio were independent risk factors for DFS, while maximum tumor diameter and mitotic figure were independent risk factors for OS (P＜0.05). The 10-year DFS rate was higher in the local resection group than in the pancreaticoduodenectomy group (89.45% vs 74.24%; HR＝0.300, P＝0.013), but there was no statistical difference in OS between the two groups. The incidence of postoperative complications in the pancreaticoduodenectomy group was higher than that in the local resection group (P＜0.001). Maximum tumor diameter and distance from tumor to the duodenal papilla were independent factors influencing surgical approach selection. The nomogram model based on these two indices demonstrated good discrimination and accuracy upon internal validation. ConclusionsThe long-term prognosis of patients with descending duodenal GIST is favorable, and surgical treatment achieves satisfactory outcomes. The nomogram model developed in this study can effectively guide individualized surgical approach selection and provide a reference for clinical decision-making.