A Bang for Your Buck – a Commentary of the US Action Plan in Limiting Arms Diversions and Trafficking in Ukraine

Illicit arms trafficking in Ukraine has been a significant issue since the Cold War, with leftover Soviet stockpiles providing lucrative smuggling routes. With over US$100 billion in aid being provided by the West, a sizeable portion being in the form of small arms and guided infantry weapons such as MANPADS and ATGMs (Masters & Merrow 2023), and accompanying ammunition, Action Plans have been developed conducive to limiting eventual diversion of military aid into the illicit market. What this paper seeks to analyse, is the United States’ ‘Plan to Counter Illicit Diversion of Certain Advanced Conventional Weapons in Eastern Europe’. The plan highlights steps towards limiting illicit arms trafficking such as increased traceability, provision of end-use-monitoring (EUM) capacities and training, intelligence sharing, and capacity building for border management. This paper argues that the current iteration of the United States’ effort to limit arms trafficking, though still in its infancy, has provided some benefit in Ukraine’s efforts to combat the illicit diversion of arms, and could limit the presence of US-made weapons in the illicit arms market, as has been the case thus far. However, this paper does argue that, given the context of lacking institutional accountability, the role of corruption, an inconsistent and incoherent legal framework for gun ownership, as well as lacking coordination with US partners, the Action Plan will unlikely help reform the structural conditions that established Ukraine as a lucrative arms market before the war.