Development of a nomogram for predicting the risk of potentially inappropriate medication use in older adults: A retrospective cross-sectional study

Objective To analyze the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication use in older adults and develop a nomogram for predicting the individualized risk for potentially inappropriate medication use. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using prescription data from older adults who visited the Hefei Third People’s Hospital between May 2022 and May 2024. The 2019 Beers Criteria and Chinese criteria for Determining Potentially Inappropriate Medication Use in Older Adults in China were used to identify potentially inappropriate medication use. We conducted univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify the factors associated with potentially inappropriate medication use and developed a nomogram model to predict the individualized risk of potentially inappropriate medication use. Results Among the 475 older adults included, 195 (41.05%) had at least one incidence of potentially inappropriate medication use (total 288 occurrences). Medications considered as potentially inappropriate were most commonly used (88.72%), followed by medications to be used with caution (6.67%), potentially inappropriate drug–drug interactions (1.54%), and medications potentially inappropriate for patients with certain diseases or syndromes (2.05%). Benzodiazepines, rapid/short-acting insulin, proton pump inhibitors, and amitriptyline were the most frequently used potentially inappropriate medications. Independent risk factors for potentially inappropriate medication use included: (a) age ≥70 years; (b) diabetes mellitus; (c) hypertension; (d) coronary heart disease; (e) sleep disorders; (f) ≥3 comorbidities; and (g) use of ≥4 medications. The nomogram showed moderate discriminative ability (concordance index =0.738) with good calibration and minimal overfitting. Conclusion Advanced age, multiple chronic conditions, and polypharmacy are key predictors of potentially inappropriate medication in older adults. Enhanced monitoring and personalized medication management may help reduce the risk of potentially inappropriate medication use in this population.