Evaluation of Indicators and Low-Carbon Urban Policy Priorities in Iranian Urban Development Programs (Case Study: Shiraz City)

Background and Objectives: Climate change, resulting from the continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions, has become one of the most critical global challenges. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report emphasizes that limiting global warming requires rapid yet sustainable reductions in CO₂, methane, and other greenhouse gases, which also contribute to improving air quality. this study aims to identify and prioritize low-carbon city indicators within Iran’s current and future urban development frameworks, focusing on the case of Shiraz. Methods: Indicators and policy guidelines were categorized based on theoretical literature to form a conceptual framework. Statistical analyses were then conducted on the effects of these indicators within provincial development programs, regional drafts, and the comprehensive plan of Shiraz. Data were collected through questionnaires completed by decision-makers and policymakers. Governance conditions in developing countries were also considered to establish policy priorities for sustainable urban development. Findings: Results show that the building sector (0.251) and waste generation (0.240) exert the greatest influence on existing plans, whereas energy consumption, social indicators, and water use have lesser effects. Experts assign higher priority to urban mobility, social aspects, and energy consumption in future policies. Conclusion: Integrating low-carbon indicators into urban planning is essential for aligning local development strategies with global climate goals. The findings provide a policy-oriented framework for promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban development in Iran.