Demographic-Labour Atrophy in Ukraine: Security Implications and Spatial Constraints of Development

The article reveals the demographic-labor atrophy of Ukraine as an integral socio-economic phenomenon, which, under conditions of prolonged polycrisis (military actions, demographic depletion, labor market distortions, socio-behavioral and institutional as well as medico-social disruptions, etc.), transforms from a purely socio-demographic problem into a cross-sectoral security risk. The feasibility of statistically measuring demographic-labor atrophy as a generalized integrated indicator of the depth of human potential losses, spatial development asymmetry, and limitations of the recovery capacity of socio-economic systems is substantiated. A security-oriented factor architecture of demographic-labor atrophy is proposed, encompassing behavioral-psychological, economic, social, ecological-resource, spatial, institutional, as well as medico-genetic and biomedical factors, whose interaction forms a cumulative effect of the country’s human potential degradation. On this basis, a system of statistical indicators has been formed for the quantitative analysis of atrophic processes in the security dimension. An indicative model for assessing demographic and labor atrophy using the method of calculating integral indicators has been constructed. At the first and second stages, the absolute values of eighteen statistical indicators are converted into relative (dimensionless) values, after which (at stages three and four) they are weighted by weight coefficients to calculate integral indicators in seven dimensions and, further (at stage five), aggregation is carried out with the calculation of a generalized integral indicator of demographic and labor atrophy taking into account the weight of each of the seven groups of factors. A scale for interpreting the levels of demographic and labor atrophy by its threshold values has been proposed, which allows identifying low, moderate, high and critical levels as different states of spatially determined security vulnerability. A macro-regional differentiation of the levels of demographic and labor atrophy for seven post-war macro-regional zones of Ukraine was carried out with the determination of their spatial and security content and priority types of management response. The scientific novelty of the study lies not only in the introduction of the category of demographic and labor atrophy, but also in its operationalization as an object of statistical evaluation in security and spatial dimensions. The results obtained form an analytical basis for monitoring security risks, spatial planning and substantiation of state policy for restoration and development of human potential in conditions of polycrisis.