No turning point? Suicide trends in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Aims The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted significant mental health impacts worldwide, with a major concern in the literature being its potential effect on suicide rates. Brazil, one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic, still lacks clear evidence regarding the consequences of the crisis on self-inflicted deaths. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Brazil. Methods We employed an interrupted time series design with seasonal adjustments to estimate changes in suicide rates per 100,000 population. The analysis was based on deaths from all forms of self-inflicted injury, as classified by the International Classification of Diseases. We estimated trends for the total population, stratified by sex and administrative region. Results Suicide rates increased significantly before the pandemic (β₁ = 0.00148, p < 0.001). No significant change in trend was observed after the onset of the pandemic at the national level (β₃ = 0.00092, p > 0.05). Among men, both the pre-pandemic trend (β₁ = 0.00236, p < 0.001) and the post-pandemic increase (β₃ = 0.00155, p < 0.05) were significant. For women, the pre-pandemic trend was modest (β₁ = 0.00065, p < 0.001), and the post-pandemic slope was not significant (β₃ = 0.00033, p = 0.10). Regionally, the Central-West (β₃ = 0.00217, p < 0.01) and North (β₃ = 0.00186, p < 0.05) experienced significant post-pandemic increases, while the Southeast (β₃ = 0.00087, p > 0.05) and South (β₃ = −0.00034, p > 0.05) showed no significant changes. Seasonal effects revealed consistent mid-year declines across all groups and regions. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic did not produce a statistically significant shift in national suicide trends but coincided with the persistence of pre-existing upward patterns in specific demographic and regional contexts. These findings underscore the need for targeted and region-specific suicide prevention strategies.