Structural changes in the wheat supply chain and their environmental footprints through satellite yield forecasting

Satellite-based crop forecasting in major exporting regions can trigger production shifts in the opposite hemisphere by leveraging seasonal disparities between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to stabilize global crop supply and markets. However, the impact of these regional shifts on supply chains and environmental footprint remains unclear. Thus, evaluating the influence of yield forecasts on wheat supply chains and carbon footprints and identifying challenges to and strategies for the sustainable use of satellite-based forecasts are crucial. This study analyzed the structural changes in the wheat supply chain and their environmental impacts resulting from satellite yield forecasting by employing the RAS method and wheat production data. The results indicate that Southern Hemisphere wheat production shifts, triggered by favorable Northern Hemisphere crop information, generate an additional $10.80 billion in value-added and 4.08 Mt of carbon dioxide emissions in a favorable crop year relative to the 2019 base year. Moreover, favorable Northern Hemisphere harvests increase carbon dioxide emissions in countries neighboring Russia and Ukraine, including Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt. Considering carbon leakage in production forecasts for trading agricultural commodities across hemispheres can stabilize prices and reduce emissions, ultimately improving global food security and environmental sustainability.