Multi-level intensity analysis of LULC change in the Upper Yamuna Basin and its impact on river health in the Delhi region

The rapid urban-induced Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes threaten river health, necessitating the identification of key drivers. It becomes essential to conduct a comprehensive assessment of anthropogenic changes to prioritize the dominant patterns and processes shaping river conditions in urban reaches. This study, for the first time in the Indian context, employs a multi-level intensity analysis (at the interval, category, and transition levels) to extract deeper insights into LULC dynamics within the Upper Yamuna Basin (UYB) and its sub-basin, the Delhi Region (DR). The analysis indicates relative stabilization of overall LULC transitions in the second interval, converging toward a uniform rate across the UYB and the DR. In the UYB, urban expansion consistently targets water bodies, while cropland expansion mainly occurs at the expense of barren land, which exhibits the highest loss intensity. In the DR, early built-up encroachment displaces vegetation, but eventually targets barren land. Correspondingly, vegetation demonstrates the highest loss intensity in the first interval, whereas barren land achieves so in the second. Cropland transitions likewise shift from primarily targeting water bodies (2004–2014) to barren land (2014–2024). The qualitative condition assessment reveals that these transitions have adversely affected the Yamuna River's health, with elevated pollutant loads, degraded water quality, and compromised riparian ecosystem services in the DR. Furthermore, this research provides projections of LULC dynamics for the UYB in 2034, 2044, and 2054. The findings underpin recommendations for strategic interventions to improve environmental sustainability and resilience of the landscape.