Harmonizing socioeconomic and environmental factors in lake ecosystems: The case of Lake Iseo

The complex interplay between socioeconomic progress and environmental protection poses a major challenge to sustainable development in lake basins. To assess the dynamic relationship between these dimensions, this study applies an integrated framework combining a Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model and an Obstacle Diagnosis Model (ODM) to the Iseo Lake sub-basin in Northern Italy from 2008 to 2022. The results show that the system evolved from an initial stage of barely balanced development to a more coordinated configuration, with the CCD increasing to 0.75 in 2022. The long-term improvement reflects both the growth of key socioeconomic indicators and the progressive consolidation of environmental governance frameworks. The ODM reveals a temporal shift in limiting factors: while early-stage coordination was mainly constrained by economic weaknesses, in recent years the environmental subsystem, especially lake water state, has emerged as the primary barrier. These findings suggest that sustaining and enhancing coordination will require continued efforts in nutrient load reduction, infrastructural resilience, and the integration of land-use planning with ecological restoration goals. This study offers a replicable framework for assessing socio-ecological interactions in lake basins and can inform place-based strategies for long-term water resource sustainability.