Bridging the gaps from core to core: Modeling shared ecological networks for waterbirds across the urban-nature reserve interface

Reconciling urban expansion with ecological integrity is a key objective of the Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework, particularly in fluvial and coastal cities. Their extensive river networks and urban wetlands provide essential refuges for waterbirds, making them ideal for examining avian mobility within human-dominated landscapes. Nonetheless, existing research often focuses separately on either protected areas (PAs) or urban centers, lacking comprehensive quantitative methods to identify ecological networks (ENs) that connect “urban cores with natural cores”. To address this gap, we developed a multi-species ecological habitat network for 12 waterbird species in Zhengzhou, aimed at enhancing connectivity between urban habitats and the Zhengzhou Yellow River Wetland Nature Reserve (ZYRWNR). Employing ensemble MaxEnt modeling, we assessed habitat suitability and integrated Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) with Remote-Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) to delineate ecological sources. Subsequently, circuit theory in conjunction with Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) modeling was applied to map corridors and strategic areas, and the network's effectiveness was assessed using α,β,γ indices. Our results identified: (1) a pronounced north–south gradient in habitat quality, with 54 ecological sources (364.01 km2) and 109 potential corridors (1045.48 km) where comparative topological analysis confirms a significantly more connected and effective network (α = 0.54, β = 2.02, γ = 0.70); (2) potential critical connectivity impediments include 90 pinch points, 105 barriers, and 183 fracture points; (3) we propose a “two-core, three-horizontal, three-vertical, multi-patch” network framework to guide ecological restoration and blue-green infrastructure planning. This methodology provides a transferable and testable model for identifying priority areas for biodiversity conservation in urbanizing landscapes.