A tool for the estimation of the magnitudes and monetary values of ESS losses and returns on investment to combat degradation of agricultural resources

Reversing the effects of agricultural resource degradation – and its implications for ecosystem services (ESS) – require targeted policy action. Comprehensive and consistent estimates of the magnitudes and monetary values of the loss of ESS due to inaction and avoided losses due to action to prevent and reverse agricultural resource degradation (ARD) can provide strong evidence that motivate investment and unlock financing mechanisms. In this paper, we present a decision support tool called “Analysis Pack for Economics of Agricultural Resource Degradation and Ecosystem Service Losses (APEARD)” which we developed not only to provide estimates of losses for different ESS, but also to evaluate the returns on investment and sustainability of co-benefits of actions. A national-scale application of APEARD, presented here only as proof of its versatility, shows that inaction on ARD is costing Uzbekistan potential production of at least 2 million tons of food, 63.8 thousand tons of woody biomass, and 477 thousand tons of forage, and 18.2 billion cubic meters of irrigation water, and 194 million tons of soil annually. ARD is also causing the emission of 1.6 million tons of carbon annually, among other hazards. These impacts on ESS are valued at more than US$11.1 billion per year (17.94% of GDP) - too high a cost to ignore. Were Uzbekistan and its development partners to invest $2.9 billion over 10 years to implement recommended packages of policy, institutional, and technological innovations to combat ARD, the country would reap returns worth $47.9 billion at a benefit-cost ratio of 16.5.