Nature-based solutions to reduce carbon emissions, control groundwater overdraft, and conserve avian biodiversity with multi-benefit conservation planning

Climate change is undermining the effectiveness of static reserve systems by shifting species distributions and increasing the opportunity costs of conservation, particularly for land and water under more frequent temperature and hydrological extremes. We developed an integrated framework that couples species distribution models with economic opportunity-cost models to support spatially and temporally explicit systematic conservation planning. The framework jointly evaluates biodiversity outcomes and sustainability indicators to identify cost-effective conservation strategies, including dynamic habitat—temporary habitat provision on working lands to meet seasonal ecological needs. We applied the framework to California's Central Valley, modeling weekly distributions for an ensemble of shorebird species and estimating land and water opportunity costs to prioritize dynamic habitat under current and climate-change scenarios. Results show that aligning conservation actions with the seasonal timing of agricultural land use can deliver biodiversity gains while supporting co-benefits for sustainability, such as groundwater recharge and carbon sequestration. A dynamic habitat system achieved the same conservation benefit as a traditional reserve system at only 10% of the conservation cost. Under climate change, achieving equivalent conservation benefits required higher spatial connectivity, indicating increased coordination across the landscape. When land and water trade-offs were incorporated, prioritization shifted toward non-productive agricultural seasons, helping maintain agricultural viability while meeting conservation targets. In contrast, approaches that ignored economic trade-offs consistently prioritized areas with the highest biodiversity value regardless of cost. Our results demonstrate how integrating biodiversity metrics with other sustainability indicators can support climate-smart, flexible conservation strategies that remain effective and affordable under climate change.