Carrying capacity based on ecological footprint of six metropolitan areas in Java Island

Urbanization is considered an inevitable result of population growth in many developing countries. Cities attract migrants due to economic opportunities, infrastructure improvements, and higher living standards. However, rapid and uncontrolled urban expansion has generated significant environmental challenges, including land degradation, excessive resource consumption, and biodiversity loss. Assessing the sustainability of urban development requires an understanding of a region's carrying capacity, defined as the balance between human demands and the region's ability to support those demands without long-term environmental damage. Given this, the primary objective of this study is to ascertain the status of environmental carrying capacity ECC in relation to the physical characteristics of the land, land conversion phenomena, and patterns of natural resource consumption by humans by using the ecological footprint (EF)–biocapacity (BC) framework in six metropolitan areas on the island of Java: Jabodetabek, Greater Bandung, Kedungsepur, Kartamantul, Greater Solo, and Gerbangkertosusila. A review of 2019 data and 2032 projections reveals that all regions have an ecological deficit, with ecological demand exceeding local carrying capacity. Projections indicate a substantial deficit by 2032 due to population growth and increased urban activity. These results highlight the urgent need for sustainable spatial planning and policy interventions to reduce ecological pressure and strengthen the environmental resilience of Java's metropolitan areas.