Coastal changes monitoring based on DSAS and LCM: implications for habitat management in the largest independent gas reserve in the world

Coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs are highly sensitive to shoreline instability and rapid land-use changes in industrializing regions. Nayband Gulf, located adjacent to the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (PSEEZ) in the northern Persian Gulf, has experienced considerable environmental pressures over the past two decades. The overarching aim of this study is to analyze the interplay between shoreline dynamics, land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes, and habitat degradation. Specifically, we seek to: (1) quantify shoreline changes from 2000 to 2023, (2) assess the effects of LULC changes on sensitive coastal habitats, and (3) examine the potential relationship between industrial expansion, Shoreline Fluctuations, and habitat degradation. To this end, cloud-free Landsat imagery acquired under low-tide conditions (30 m resolution; 2000, 2010/2013, 2021, 2023) was used. Shoreline changes were quantified along 974 transects using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 5.0 through EPR, LRR, NSM, and SCE metrics. LULC transitions were mapped through supervised classification (overall accuracy 88–91%, κ = 0.87–0.90) with habitats delineated using Allen Coral Atlas and field surveys. Quantification demonstrates a >2600-ha transformation of landscapes and coastal waters, primarily for petrochemical and industrial land reclamation and development. Western sectors exhibited pronounced erosion (70.7% transects; mean retreat 88.5 m), whereas accretion processes were dominant in the eastern sector. The findings underscore that large-scale industrial transformation of the coastline is a critical driver of concurrent habitat degradation and shoreline change in this vulnerable system, suggesting a probable causal link within the complex coastal dynamics.