Projecting vocational teacher demand in Aceh using a mixed methods sector based approach for regional education planning

Abstract This study explores the projected demand for vocational teachers in Aceh, Indonesia, amid persistent challenges related to uneven teacher distribution, competency mismatches, and changing labour market needs. Using a mixed-methods approach, quantitative data were drawn from the December 2023 Dapodik database, covering 23 vocational schools selected from 58 mapped institutions, and complemented by qualitative evidence from interviews, observations, and multi-stakeholder focus group discussions. Student enrolment trends were analysed using growth-based projections to estimate future vocational teacher demand. The findings suggest that vocational student enrolment in Aceh is expected to increase by approximately 15% over the next five years, while around 40% of current vocational teachers lack competency certificates aligned with the subjects they teach. These conditions highlight a critical need for more systematic and forward-looking teacher planning. In response, this study proposes a strategic roadmap that outlines phased recruitment, targeted certification, and sector-oriented professional development aligned with regional priority sectors such as tourism, fisheries, and information technology. By integrating empirical projections with stakeholder perspectives, this research offers a practical and replicable framework to support evidence-based vocational education planning within decentralised education systems.