A microeconometric evaluation of the one million school bags program in rural Morocco using quasi-experimental approach

Abstract This study provides a microeconometric evaluation of Morocco's “One Million School Bags” program, with particular emphasis on its impact in rural schools where educational challenges are most pronounced. Using rigorous quasi-experimental methods, we employ propensity score matching (PSM) analysis on data from the National Survey on Social Support for Schooling (ENASS) conducted by the National Observatory of Human Development (ONDH) in 2018. Our sample includes 5,704 students, with 3,800 beneficiaries (66.62%) and 1904 non-beneficiaries (33.38%), with rural students representing over 62% of program beneficiaries. Four matching algorithms are implemented: nearest neighbor, kernel, radius, and stratification matching. The program modestly but significantly improves school enrollment by 3–6 percentage points and reduces grade repetition by 4–7 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis reveals particularly strong effects in rural areas, where the program achieves 4.2 percentage points enrollment improvement and a substantial 17 percentage points reduction in grade repetition. The analysis also uncovers differential effects by gender and education level, with boys experiencing stronger enrollment effects (4.9pp) and grade repetition reduction (26.8pp) compared to girls, while high school students demonstrate the largest enrollment gains (16.9pp). Morocco's school supplies program constitutes an effective intervention for reducing educational barriers and improving student retention, particularly in rural contexts where access to educational resources is most limited. However, the heterogeneous impacts highlight the need for targeted approaches addressing specific constraints faced by different student groups, particularly girls and primary school students in rural areas.