Dominance and natural suppression of bacterial plant pathogens across global soils

Abstract Soils are the primary environmental reservoir of plant pathogens impacting food production and ecosystem productivity worldwide. Yet, some soils can also suppress pathogens through environmental and microbial regulation. Here we integrate 1602 soil metagenomes from 59 countries with a greenhouse experiment to identify 32 dominant pathogens, including Ralstonia solanacearum, Clavibacter michiganensis, and Streptomyces europaeiscabiei. Pathogen hotspots occur primarily in warm ecosystems and agricultural soils, whereas higher soil microbial diversity, increased soil organic carbon and colder climatic conditions are associated with lower pathogen prevalence. Non-pathogenic Streptomyces spp., arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, and biosynthetic gene clusters encoding terpenes and polyketides are associated with reduced pathogen prevalence. Predictive modelling suggests that several dominant bacterial pathogens are likely to increase in prevalence under future climate scenarios, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. By identifying global drivers of dominant pathogens and their suppression, this study provides a foundation for improved surveillance and management of plant disease risks under climate change.