Climate change and macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity in Somalia

Abstract Food insecurity remains a major challenge in fragile and climate-exposed countries, especially where agricultural production depends on rainfall and economic systems are weak. Somalia faces this challenge acutely because of recurrent droughts, climate variability, import dependence, and rapid population growth. This study examines how climatic factors (rainfall, temperature, and carbon emissions), macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, agriculture value-added, and trade openness), and demographic pressure (population growth) affect food insecurity in Somalia from 1980 to 2022. In this study, food insecurity is proxied by the Food Production Index (2014–2016 = 100), which captures the food availability dimension of food security. The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships, and uses Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) as robustness checks. Unit root and bounds test results support the use of ARDL and confirm a long-run relationship among the variables. The ARDL results show that, in the long run, temperature, carbon emissions, agriculture value-added, and population growth are positively associated with the Food Production Index, while GDP per capita is negatively associated; rainfall and trade openness are not statistically significant. In the short run, rainfall, temperature, and carbon emissions have positive and significant effects, while GDP per capita and trade openness have negative and significant effects. The error-correction term is negative and significant, indicating rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. DOLS and CCR estimates broadly support the long-run ARDL results. Overall, the findings show that Somalia’s food availability dynamics are shaped by a combination of climate conditions, economic structure, and demographic pressure. The results support policies that strengthen agricultural resilience, improve climate adaptation, and stabilize food systems in a fragile context.