Ecosystem health in the Yellow River Estuary based on the DPSIR model: a case study in China

Abstract As a core node for maintaining the ecological security of the Bohai Sea and promoting the coordinated development of regional social economy, the Yellow River Estuary has long been subjected to the dual stress of natural disturbances and human activities, making a systematic assessment of its ecosystem health an urgent need. By integrating the DPSIR model framework with long-term time series, multi-source data, and a comprehensive weighting method, this study systematically reveals the nonlinear evolution patterns of the Yellow River estuary ecosystem health from 2010 to 2023 under the combined influence of human activities, ecological pressures, and policy responses. This approach addresses the limitations of previous assessments based on short-term data or single-dimensional indicators. The results show that during the study period, the overall ecological health value of the Yellow River Estuary remained in a sub-healthy state but showed a positive development trend. There are significant regional differences: the ecological health of Dongying District and Guangrao County has continuously improved, that of Hekou District has decreased slightly, and that of Kenli District and Lijin District has remained basically stable. The spatial pattern exhibited a “high in the north and south, low in the middle” characteristic, with low-grade areas gradually shrinking and medium-high grade areas continuously expanding, reflecting the gradual emergence of ecological governance effects over time. The research results can provide scientific support for long-term decision-making in regional ecological management.