Comparative effects of US and China trade with Africa on carbon emissions

Abstract A vast literature has examined the effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution in Africa. Unfortunately, studies on the environmental impacts of Africa’s trade exchanges with leading global economies is missing. To address this, our paper comparatively explores the impacts of US-African and China-African trade links on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions intensity in 42 African economies, based on data from 2002 to 2023. By using dynamic panel estimation techniques, it tried to examine the asymmetric effects of trade exchanges on CO2 emissions. Our findings indicate that Africa’s trade relations with the two leading global economies present a mixed blessing regarding their effects on environment. The results reveal a significant positive effect of Africa’s exports, which increase CO2 emissions. Asymmetric and heterogeneous technical effects of imports are also observed across countries. While the effects of imports from China is particularly significant for economies at lower quantiles, the technical effects of imports from the US are substantial for economies at relatively higher quantiles points. Furthermore, the magnitudes of trade and other variables are heterogeneous across economies. Our paper implies that trade expansion without consideration to the environment creates carbon lock-in effects in the continent. It suggested that future trade policy and agreements should aligned with sustainable green transformation in Africa.