Pronóstico de inundaciones en el río Paraná en Corrientes

Strong occurrence of El Niño events induce in July 1997 there were clear evidences of the onset of an El Niño event in the Center and East Equatorial Pacific Ocean and based on what was already mentioned it was necessary to have in advance a good idea about the expected flooding stages in the Paraná river. The experience acquired in previous climatic forecasts, it has allowed to design a flooding statistical forecast model for the Paraná river (coupled ocean-atmosphere model). The model was calibrated for the 1950-1996 period using the Multiple Lineal Regression technique. Observed sea -surface temperature (SST) from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, SST of a oceanic region located in front of the Peruvian coast line and the Southern Oscillation Index are used as predictors. It is possible to apply it from the first days of September of each El Niño year. The average difference between observed and simulated volumes is about 8.4% there is not previous seasonal forecast of this nature in the Paraná river and it has not been done in advance. In September 1997 we have published a 490.000 hm3 October 97-March 98 seasonal forecast with a bias of 32.000 hm3, amount very close to the observed value during the 1982/83 period.