Assessing urban morphological dynamics and landscape fragmentation in Kuwait using integrated fractal analysis from 1985 to 2100

Abstract This study investigates the evolving urban morphology and landscape fragmentation in Kuwait by integrating fractal analysis, spatial statistics, and landscape metrics. Utilizing historical land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1985–2022 and existing projected LULC data for 2050–2100, the research applies a robust framework combining global and local fractal dimensions (FD), morphological evaluation, and statistical fragmentations. Findings show a marked rise in urban complexity, with FD increasing from 1.28 (1985) to a projected 1.426 (2100). Multi-radial fractal analysis highlights a shift from a monocentric coastal city to a polycentric structure. Fragmentation indices, including the mean contiguity range of 0.58–0.69, reveal fluctuating and complex patterns of urban connectivity rather than simple consolidation, suggesting spatially heterogeneous development. Hotspot and cluster/outlier analyses reveal enduring coastal cold spots and emerging inland urban hotspots, signaling new development trends. This research offers a novel framework for analyzing urban growth in emerging economies, with critical implications for sustainable urban planning, infrastructure design, and environmental management, despite data limitations.