Environmental consequences of agricultural exports on biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions in ASEAN-5

Abstract Over the past two decades, agricultural exports in Southeast Asia have surged due to trade liberalization and rising global food demand. This study examines the environmental impacts of agricultural exports in ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam) over the period 2001–2021, focusing on biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) as the main estimator, with difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and bias-corrected Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDVC) as robustness checks, the analysis assesses the effects of both aggregate and product-specific agricultural exports (rubber, rice, and palm oil) on the Species Habitat Index (SHI) and agricultural GHG emissions, while evaluating the moderating role of agricultural trade openness. The results reveal pronounced heterogeneity across commodities and environmental dimensions. Aggregate agricultural exports are associated with incremental biodiversity loss but do not exert uniform effects on emissions. Rubber exports emerge as the most environmentally consequential, with trade liberalization significantly amplifying negative impacts on both biodiversity and emissions. Rice exports primarily increase emissions, while palm oil exports show weak environmental effects. Real income and renewable energy intensity are associated with worsening biodiversity outcomes but mitigates agricultural GHG emissions. The results also do not support the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis. These findings underscore the need for commodity-specific and instrument-based policies in ASEAN that align agricultural export growth with biodiversity conservation and emissions mitigation.