Before and after the 2015 disaster: Development trajectories in the Himalayan riskscape of Langtang from 1949 to 2025

Urbanisation, land use changes and tourism in disaster-prone high mountain areas or riskscapes have emerged as important research topics and major planning challenges at a global scale with the Himalayan region as a hotspot. Since the opening of Nepal for foreigners, the Langtang Valley has emerged as an important central Himalayan trekking destination leading to rapid socio-economic changes and settlement expansions, interrupted by the massive 2015 Gorkha earthquake. This study aims to analyse the intricate interactions between settlement changes, post-disaster recovery and future development in Himalayan riskscapes. Using a multi-temporal and multi-source dataset including remote sensing imagery, photographs, travel guidebooks, interviews and participatory mapping, an assessment of settlement changes from the late 1940s until 2025 has been conducted. Before the mega-rupture, a slow onset of tourism can be observed, leading to urban sprawl, which replaced the formerly compact settlement structure of Langtang Village in the 1990s. Settlement growth in Kyanjin Gompa, the second village in the valley, has started with a delay but has accelerated since the mega-rupture. Ten years after the disaster, the number of hotels in Langtang Village is 74% higher and in Kyanjin Gompa even 155% higher compared to the situation before the earthquake. High densification can be observed in both settlement centres, resulting from building restrictions in hazard-prone areas. Despite the devastating geohazard, this study demonstrates that post-disaster reconstruction focused on tourism landscapes has further exacerbated risk.