Comercio internacional, industrialización y desarrollo económico

The classical and neo-classical theories of international trade are subject to critical analysis. Thus it is shown that policy recommendations based on such theories are not justified because rigidities in the economic systems would prevent many countries from attaining the degree of diversification which according to theory should follow under free trade conditions. Specialization along primary producing lines is desirable only if it assures countries adopting it, full employment of human resources or, at least, an equitable share of world income-conditions attained only under exceptional and transitory circumstances. It follows that beyond certain point further economic progress in such countries requires industrialization and protection. This part of the study supplies a logical and theoretical justification for policies which most underdeveloped countries have already adopted against the recommendations of many orthodox economists. A statistical section shows that certain well known empirical generalizations abput the development of international trade following industrialization are not valid. International trade appears as a prerequisite of industrialization rather than its result or by product. The historical expansion in the trade of the older industrial countries is only an index of their success in obtaining access to resources without which industrialization would not have been possible. Also the common belief that trade somehow will increase whenever a country industrializes –or attempts- is unwarranted and proven by the fact that the reciprocal trade of the older industrial nations has tended to decline, both in absolute and relative terms, while their trade with primary producing countries has steadily expanded. The role of international trade in economic growth is then re appraised. Trade is shown to be an essential part of industrialization as its effects is that of supplementing domestic resources and making diversification possible. Since most countries have unbalanced bases of natural resources, their industrialization is dependent on attaining minimum levels of international trade. This conclusion is important for underdeveloped countries bent on industrializing, Economic integration with countries having complementary resources is shown to be the answer whenever the trade prospects of a country indicate that industrialization may be infeasible Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas