Development of Predictive Models for Shelf-Life of Ready-to-Eat Pomegranate Arils

We investigated the quality changes of ready-to-eat pomegranate arils during storage at 5， 15， 25， and 35 ℃. The kinetic parameters of each quality index were fitted using quality degradation kinetic equations， and a shelf life prediction model was developed by integrating the fitting results with the Arrhenius equation. The results demonstrated that the anthocyanin content exhibited an optimal fit with the first-order kinetic model， exhibiting the highest fitting accuracy. A first-order kinetic model with anthocyanin content as the characteristic index was subsequently combined with the Arrhenius equation to construct a shelf-life prediction model. Validation experiments revealed that the mean absolute error between the predicted and actual values was less than 10%， confirming the high accuracy and reliability of the model. This model can effectively predict the shelf life of pomegranate arils over the temperature range of 5-35 ℃， providing theoretical support and methodological guidance for quality maintenance during the circulation and marketing of the product.