Real estate boom and export performance bust in Croatia

The goal of this research is to estimate the effect of resource reallocation from the manufacturing to the real estate economic sector on exporting activity in Croatia, a small open post-transition country that experienced a real estate boom during the previous decade. This paper follows the work by Égert and Kierzenkowski (2014) as we test the hypothesis that the real estate boom had an adverse impact on country’s export performance. For that purpose we use quarterly data ranging from 1Q1998 to 3Q2013, and estimate export equations using maximum likelihood and dynamic ordinary least squares estimators of cointegration. Our results indicate that the distortion of relative prices in favor of non-tradable sectors (construction and real estate), which is a direct by-product of the real estate boom, has had stifling effects on export performance. Our results also suggest that ailing cost competitiveness and governments’ inability to implement policies promoting private sector economic development adversely influenced export performance during the period analyzed. The basic conclusion of our research is that the expansion of a non-tradable sector in a country with limited supply of production factors can have a detrimental effect on the ability of the tradable sector to increase its output and compete in international markets.