Why are COVID-19 travel bubbles a tightrope walk? An investigation based on the Trans-Tasmanian case

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the transportation sector hard; particularly air transportation, as a major mode of long-distance transportation, has been affected tremendously. Since the dawn of COVID-19, politicians and policy makers have discussed the idea of introducing travel bubbles between countries (or counties), to allow for a continued exchange of people and goods. The eponymous Trans-Tasmanian travel bubble is a major example, involving quarantine-free travel between Australia and New Zealand. While both countries have tried to form a travel bubble various times, recurring setbacks and difficulties were faced. In October 2021, this ambitious project presumably has come to an end, with both countries announcing the essential capitulation of their COVIDZero strategies and a planned opening towards broader international travel. In this study, we perform a close investigation of the history behind the Trans-Tasmanian travel bubble as an on-off relationship, identifying a set of drivers for the serious problems involving a sustainable setup and operation. We develop a framework which represents important factors for successful travel bubbles and believe that the satisfaction of all factors at once is extremely challenging. Our results and insights are not specific to the Trans-Tasmanian case only, although it is taken as a running example, but can be generalized to various scales and environments. We hope that our study contributes to the literature by improving our understanding of the highly buzzed travel bubble concept, while providing empirical evidence for the troubles that inherently make such bubbles a tightrope walk.