Risk Identification and Assessment in the Digital Transformation of Aerospace Enterprises: A Combined Qualitative and Quantitative Approach

<p>With the rapid advancement of China's aerospace industry, aerospace enterprises are actively adopting next-generation digital intelligent technologies, facilitating a transition from traditional planned management to a collaborative development model of multi-satellite systems. While this digital transformation process can optimize the entire lifecycle management of aerospace products, it simultaneously introduces potential risks. This study aims to systematically identify and assess risk factors in the digital transformation process of aerospace enterprises, providing a scientific basis for formulating effective intervention measures. Employing a comprehensive approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative methods, this research systematically summarizes the risks, their sources, and anticipated impacts in the transformation process through surveys of multiple aerospace enterprises and large-scale research and production consortia. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for weight allocation and assessment of risk factors, this study establishes a risk assessment framework for the digital transformation of aerospace enterprises. The study constructs a comprehensive risk factor framework comprising 9 primary elements and 28 secondary elements. The reliability and practicality of this framework were validated through its application to state-owned aerospace manufacturing enterprises and market-oriented private commercial space companies. The findings reveal that the alignment of digital transformation with organizational strategy and operational management is a high-risk focus, while commercial aerospace companies place greater emphasis on service management compared to state-owned enterprises. This research enriches risk management theory by providing standardized quantitative and qualitative assessment methods, and establishing probability and impact assessment benchmarks and matrices for cost and schedule risks in aerospace enterprises. This approach not only facilitates a shift from passive risk assessment to proactive business insights for aerospace enterprises but also provides theoretical guidance and practical references for the industry. The effectiveness of the research outcomes was validated through practical application in aerospace enterprises with diverse attributes, providing a scientific basis for decision-making in the implementation of digital transformation in aerospace enterprises.</p>