Evolutionary conservation hotspots: key areas for threatened Neotropical glassfrogs under climate change scenarios

Anthropogenic climate change is one of the main threats to global biodiversity, with amphibians being among the most vulnerable vertebrate groups. In this context, the IUCN currently lists 69 species of Neotropical glassfrogs as threatened. However, our knowledge of how their taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity will be distributed in future climate change scenarios remains limited. In this study, we projected the future distribution of threatened species to estimate changes in taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity across geography under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0). We also identified priority areas for conservation based on phylogenetic diversity and the Evolutionary and Global Distinctiveness Index. Our results suggest that the Andes and Amazon Basin will experience the most drastic climatic changes, with at least six species projected to experience complete loss of climatic suitability across all assessed scenarios, consequently facing a high risk of extinction. Additionally, most species exhibit a tendency to shift towards higher elevations, accompanied by a significant reduction in their geographic range. On average, these changes could result in a loss of approximately 30% of their phylogenetic diversity. The northwest Andean montane forests of Ecuador and Colombia are identified as key refuges for future taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of glassfrogs. However, less than 36% of their projected range overlaps with protected areas, highlighting the immediate need for conservation action.