Technological leaders: assessing production frontier in the Russian economy under external shocks (2019–2023)

The dynamics of technological frontier of Russian industries in 2019–2023 under the conditions of external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 sanctions, has been studied. Unlike traditional DEA-based studies, the authors use a parametric approach based on log-log quantile regression to assess technological leaders’ behavior and the shift in the upper bound of production capabilities. Two models have been studied: a two-factor model (capital and labor) and a three-factor model (capital, labor, and material costs), which allowed for the distinction between capital and labor returns and resource adaptation effects. Based on data from Russian enterprises (2019–2023), an industry-specific assessment of technological progress and factor elasticity coefficients has been conducted. It has been shown that the 2020 crisis caused a short-term decline in technological frontier, followed by recovery, while the 2022 shock led to a longer-lasting decline, which was not overcome in most industries in 2023. The three-factor model has revealed the compensatory role of material efficiency in enterprises adaptation to external constraints. The most sustained growth in frontier has been observed in the IT sector, while the deepest decline has been observed in the automotive industry. The research findings clarify the technological leadership mechanisms and Russian industries adaptation in the face of external shocks.