Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of the Southern Senegal Upwelling Center

Abstract The Canary current upwelling System (CCS) is one the most productive marine ecosystems. CMIP5 simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario for the end of the 21st century project a modest upwelling‐favorable wind decrease over the CCS southern outpost, that is, the southern senegalese upwelling center (SSUC). We explore the coastal‐scale physical manifestations of climate change in the SSUC through dynamical downscaling of projected changes from nine CMIP5 models selected for their realistic representation of present‐day thermohaline structure. We find that coastal upwelling reduction due to wind changes is projected to be aggravated by geostrophic/pressure adjustments related, in large part, to changes in upper ocean stratification. The reduction could reach 25% of present‐day upwelling rates. The intensity of the poleward boundary current offshore of the SSUC is projected to decrease. Together with upper ocean warming this opens vast possibilities of ecological evolutions with large impact on neighboring societies.