Cause and Effect Analysis of Ship Accidents Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods

Maritime accidents remain a persistent challenge in confined and high-density waterways, where technical, human, environmental, and organizational factors interact. This paper proposes an integrated fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework combining Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (F-DEMATEL), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), and Fuzzy TOPSIS (F-TOPSIS) to analyze accident causation, prioritize accident types, and evaluate any safety performance gaps in Turkish waters. The empirical basis included 327 official accident investigation reports (2013–2024), screened to 86 high-quality cases, supported by expert elicitation. F-DEMATEL identified the Structural Risk (D−R = +1.057) and Navigation (D−R = +0.540) as dominant causal drivers, while Psychosocial Risk, Training/Experience, and External Factors function as effect factors. F-AHP prioritization indicated Fatal Occupational Accidents (40.7%) and Fire/Explosion incidents (39.8%) as the most critical categories, jointly accounting for 80.5% of the total priority weight. F-TOPSIS revealed Navigation as the most critical control deficiency (CC = 0.5462), whereas Training and Experience shows the strongest relative performance (CC = 0.7586). This framework provides an uncertainty-aware decision-support tool for evidence-based safety resource allocation and targeted interventions.