Strategic Foresight of Sustainable Development in Free and Special Economic Zones: Designing a Scenario-Based backcasting Model

Background and Objectives: Economic liberalization and green globalization highlight the need for sustainable Free and Special Economic Zones. However, institutional instability, sanctions, and weak long-term planning undermine their effectiveness. This study proposes a scenario-based backcasting model to support sustainable development and long-term adaptability. Methods: This qualitative study applied a normative futures approach using scenario based backcasting. A meta theme analysis of 12 studies identified 4 key dimensions economic, social, environmental, and governance institutional along with 26 related components. Findings: The results of the micro-analysis section identified “political and legal stability of the country” as an independent factor and a necessary condition, and “institutional efficiency” and “transparency/fighting corruption” as key levers of the system. Conclusion: The research results indicate that sustainable development in Iran's free and special economic zones is not simply an economic or managerial issue, but is entirely conditional on a structural and independent driver.