IMPACTS OF DROUGHT AND INCOME SHOCKS ON SEVERE HUNGER IN SOMALIA DURING COVID-19: A POTENTIAL OUTCOME APPROACH USING POISSON REGRESSION

Household economic activities in Somalia are deeply affected by periodic droughts and other environmental hazards like flooding and cyclones. The impacts of these shocks are reinforced by households’ exposure to other shocks, and their collective impacts are easily felt on households’ nutrition. This study therefore analysed the impacts of drought and other welfare shocks on severe food insecurity in Somalia. The data were the second wave of the High Frequency Telephone Survey of displaced people, comprising 2505 households. The Poisson regression model was estimated with potential outcome framework to compute the average treatment effect (ATE) and average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The result showed exposure to covariate and idiosyncratic shocks, with drought (87.36%), food price increases (79.84%), and reduced humanitarian assistance (62.68%) being the most prevalent. Spatial patterns reveal significantly higher drought exposure in central and southern states. Severe food insecurity remains widespread, with many households reporting episodes of food exhaustion, sleeping hungry, or going a whole day without food. Regression results show that unemployment benefits, job search, reduced income, separation, unsafe living conditions, returnee status, and residence in Puntland or Somaliland significantly increase expected hunger severity, whereas urban residence and engagement in income activities reduce it. Several shocks, including non-farm business closure, theft/looting, increased input and food prices, illness or death of income earners, drought, locust invasion, and cyclone/storm events substantially worsen food insecurity. While some shocks show insignificant average treatment effects (ATE), their treatment-on-the-treated effects (ATET) are significant, demonstrating disproportionate impacts on already-vulnerable subpopulations. The findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened shock-responsive social protection, livelihood support, and targeted humanitarian interventions in fragile settings.