Spatially explicit socio-ecological framework for indicator-based assessment of climate loss and damage: Evidence from coastal Bangladesh

With increasing impacts of climate change, vulnerable low-lying developing countries like Bangladesh have coastal zones that experience disproportionate loss and damage (L&D) that exceed the limits of local adaptation. This paper provides a comprehensive socio-ecological framework to assess climate-driven L&D on Manpura Island, a documented climate-hazard hotspot in coastal Bangladesh. The study operationalizes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s conceptualization of L&D by mapping spatiotemporal impacts and employing a weighted overlay analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). By combining household surveys and satellite-based Earth observation data, we evaluate both social L&D (in response to the event-based climate stressor such as cyclones, coastal inundation, shoreline erosion, salinity intrusion, and hailstorms) and ecological L&D (in response to ongoing climate stressor such as ecological integrity deterioration, spatial severity of impact, biocapacity change, net land-based carbon emission). The combined spatial assessment reveals that over 60% of the study area suffers from severe to extreme socio-ecological L&D. Dakshin Sakuchia Union is most socio-ecologically affected, with extreme household exposure and eco-impacts like mangrove loss, decrease in biocapacity, and increased carbon emissions. The research offers an evidence-informed framework for L&D hotspots detection to enable strategic adaptation planning and climate finance claims. It also adds methodological innovations through the design of a replicable socio-ecological L&D mapping framework. The findings emphasize the urgency for evidence-informed, equity-focused action to safeguard climate frontline ecosystems and vulnerable populations.