Linking land development to ecological and atmospheric change: remote sensing insights from Egypt’s new delta

Abstract Egypt’s New Delta Project, one of the country’s largest land reclamation initiatives, aims to boost agricultural production, support population growth, and strengthen food and water security. However, large-scale development in arid regions may alter surface climate, land–atmosphere interactions, and air quality. This study assesses the impact of agricultural expansion on air quality across the New Delta, utilizing multi-source remote sensing data processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) analysis. Two periods were compared: pre-development (2019) and post-development (2024). Vegetation increased by 8.35% (from 4,202.96 to 4,553.74 km2), and urban areas expanded by 11.69% (from 1,135.47 to 1,268.22 km2). Correspondingly, all major pollutants except SO₂ showed overall increases, PM2.5 rose from 9.34 to 9.83 µg/m3, and CO from 889.59 to 937.92 µg/m3, indicating a decline in air quality after development. Winter exhibited the highest deterioration, particularly in PM2.5 (348%) and SO2 (101%), linked to heating, dust storms, and stagnant conditions. CO and PM2.5 also increased notably in spring and summer due to agricultural and transport activities, while autumn showed minimal changes. Spatially, NO2 and CO concentrations rose sharply in newly urbanized zones, especially in the southeast. Despite these effects, the total annual ESV increased by approximately USD 309.65 million, primarily due to vegetation and urban expansion. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of remote sensing and cloud-based tools like GEE in monitoring environmental changes and underscores the need for sustainable land management to balance development with air quality and public health.