High-resolution geomechanical modeling reveals accelerating infrastructure risks from permafrost degradation in Northern Alaska

Abstract Permafrost degradation causes irreversible damage to Arctic civil infrastructure and threatens the broader pan-Arctic economy. Currently, the lack of community-scale, geomechanics-based mapping of Arctic infrastructure geohazards hinders effective local infrastructure planning. Here, we develop a framework that integrates physics-constrained geotechnical models with a process-based ground thermal model to assess the 21st century changes in thaw settlement and bearing capacity of civil infrastructure foundations at a 30-meter spatial resolution. We find that settlement is accelerating and bearing capacity is decreasing nonlinearly at both regional and local scales. By mid-century, less than 10% of the infrastructure in northern Alaska is projected to be at risk; however, a transition window emerges between the 2060 s and 2080 s. During this transition period, infrastructure risk will increase sharply, and most infrastructures are projected to be at risk. Our results underscore the urgent need for proactive adaptation strategies to protect Arctic infrastructure from permafrost degradation-induced geohazards.