Climate variability and livelihood vulnerability: a comparative LVI analysis of coastal and drought-prone regions in Bangladesh

Abstract Climate change poses significant threats to agricultural production and livelihoods in Bangladesh, particularly in its agrarian regions. This research specifically addresses the vulnerability of the coastal areas (Khulna) and drought-prone areas (Rajshahi), exploring both socio-economic, climatic vulnerabilities faced and potential adaptation strategies taken by the farm families. The study examines associations between climate variability and perceived changes in agricultural productivity, water security, and livelihoods. Data was gathered through questionnaire surveys involving 213 households in Rajshahi and 383 in Khulna. The research utilizes the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) framework to quantitatively assess and compare the vulnerability levels and climate-related shocks experienced in these two regions. Results indicate that the exposure index was 0.65 in drought-prone areas and 0.72 in coastal areas. As well as more than 93% of drought-prone areas respondent fall in LVI (0 to 0.3) range which is 73.37% for coastal. Respondents in Khulna reported higher exposure to sea levels, salinity intrusion, tidal surges and frequent flooding, which further aggravate agricultural difficulties. On the other hand, Rajshahi is more affected by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, drought and groundwater depletion. Both regions are experiencing significant changes in crop yields, disease outbreaks and livelihood insecurity, but the nature of the challenges differs from each other’s. Improved irrigation practice was found to be the most effective measure, with a mean score of 3.73 for drought-prone area and the construction of embankment was first for coastal region, with an average score of 3.64. This study can inform policymakers and other stakeholders in designing region-specific adaptation measures to enhance resilience and improve livelihoods in these climate-vulnerable areas.