Spatiotemporal evolution and spatial differentiation of carbon emission intensity in the Chinese transport sector

Abstract Accurately identifying the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial differentiation of carbon emission intensity in the transport sector is essential for formulating region-specific carbon reduction policies. This study develops an analytical framework that integrates both static and dynamic perspectives to examine spatial disparities in transport sector carbon emission intensity. From a static perspective, the Dagum Gini coefficient is employed to quantify spatial differences and their sources of transport carbon emission intensity. From a dynamic perspective, kernel density estimation is applied to depict the evolution trajectories of transport carbon emission intensity. Furthermore, the traditional Markov chain model is refined to construct a spatial Markov chain model that accounts for spatial adjacency, enabling identification of persistence and spatial spillover effects. The empirical results indicate that (1) The carbon emission intensity of the transport sector in China presents an overall declining trend with significant spatial heterogeneity among provinces. Regional disparities have expanded, with the largest gap between the eastern and western regions, where inter-regional differences contribute an average of 47.374% to total disparity, representing the main source of variation. (2) The carbon emission intensity in the national, eastern, and central regions tends to converge gradually, while the western region shows a pattern of initial convergence followed by renewed divergence. Within each region, several provinces maintain carbon emission intensity levels significantly higher than the average, forming a clear spatial gradient structure. (3) The traditional Markov chain analysis reveals evident persistence and club convergence in transport carbon emission intensity. The spatial Markov chain analysis further shows that neighboring regions strongly influence local transition probabilities, demonstrating spatial spillover and path dependence effects. Hypothesis testing confirms the necessity of incorporating spatial dependence into the analysis. Based on these findings, this study proposes that carbon reduction strategies in the transport sector should be tailored to regional disparities and spatial interdependencies, aiming to enhance overall mitigation efficiency and foster coordinated governance.