Projected compositional reorganization of Southern plant assemblages in South Korea under climate scenarios using species distribution models

Abstract Understanding how plant communities reorganize under climate change is essential for effective biodiversity conservation and restoration. We developed a spatially explicit, multi-scenario framework to evaluate future dynamics of southern (warm-temperate and subtropical-affiliated) vascular plant assemblages in South Korea. Species distribution models generated projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) across four time periods (1980–2010, 2010–2040, 2040–2070, and 2070–2100). These projections were integrated with spatial environmental clustering, kernel density estimation, and ordination-based trajectory analysis to characterize spatial persistence, compositional change, and directionality. Results revealed strong spatial heterogeneity in community responses. Environmental clusters were classified into stable, transitional, and transformational types based on the magnitude and direction of compositional change and climatic alignment. Multivariate analysis (PERMANOVA) showed that spatial cluster identity explained substantially more variation in community composition than temporal period (R² = 0.364 vs. 0.083). Stable clusters exhibited limited change and strong climatic alignment, whereas transformational clusters showed large shifts and frequent directional misalignment. Transitional clusters displayed intermediate dynamics. By jointly capturing spatial persistence, compositional trajectories, and directional coherence, this framework supports forecasting vegetation responses and climate-resilient conservation planning, with relevance to global biodiversity initiatives such as the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.