Geospatial analysis of vegetation cover dynamics and land surface temperature variability in Mianwali District, Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract A strong association exists between land use land cover change and, Land Surface Temperature (LST). The study focuses on the assessment of vegetation cover, comprising forests and agricultural land, which are crucial for ecosystem balance and hosting diverse plant and animal species. The research reveals a consistent rise in LST, indicating long-term warming trends. Assessing the changes in Vegetation Cover in District Mianwali a growing industrial urbanized area of Punjab, from 1992 to 2022, this study uses Geographical data in one of the urbanized cities in the country. LSThas increased by 4.35 degrees Celsius in the past 30 years on average over the entire region along with decreased in vegetation cover by 15% and 50% increase in built-up area. The correlation between Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and LST was negative having values of 0.72, 0.83, 0.81, and 0.65 for the years 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 respectively implying the impact of human activities, such as economic growth and reduction of green spaces, leading to increase the temperature. Land use changes from 1992 to 2022 revealed a decrease in water bodies, vegetation cover, expansion in barren land, and an increase in built-up areas, emphasizing the significant impact of human activities on the landscape. The analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal changes across LULC classes, as detailed in the area statistics, highlighting the rapid expansion of built-up areas and decline in vegetation cover over the study period. The findings suggest the need for sustainable land-use planning and monitoring for sustainable decision-making for environmental conservation.