Reflections on the Baron and Kenny model of statistical mediation

In the 25 years since Baron and Kenny (1986) published their ideas on how to analyze and interpret statistical mediation, few works have been more cited, and perhaps, so decisively influenced the way applied researchers understand and analyze mediation in social and health sciences. However, the widespread use of a procedure does not necessarily make it a safe or reliable strategy. In fact, during these years, many researchers have pointed out the limitations of the procedure Baron and Kenny proposed for demonstrating mediation. The twofold aim of this paper is to (1) carry out a review of the limitations of the method by Baron and Kenny, with particular attention to the weakness in the confirmatory logic of the procedure, and (2) provide an empirical example that, in applying the method, data obtained from the same theoretical scenario (i.e., with or without the presence of mediation) can be compatible with both the mediation and no-mediation hypotheses.